2025 is likely to be another challenging year in ocean container shipping, according to the Ocean Outlook report from Xeneta. “If 2024 has been a year framed by conflict in the Red Sea, then expect more of the same because there is no sign of a political resolution that would allow a large-scale return of container ships to the region. This only heightens the danger for container shipping because there is little slack in the system to deal with another supply chain shock.” “Could we see a military escalation in the Taiwan Strait? Will regime change in Bangladesh cause further unrest? Will the situation in the Middle East deteriorate to impact shipping in the Persian Gulf? The lights are flashing red on the geo-political dashboard and it would be foolish to ignore them.” Xeneta’s global average spot rate has softened since peaking in July as the long term market begins to rise. “The narrowing of the long-short market will be of great significance ahead of negotiations for new long term contracts in 2025. Shippers will be hoping the markets narrow further while carriers are doing their utmost to keep the spot market elevated.” Factors to watch in 2025 Demand is likely to grow by three percent in 2025 while total demand growth for 2024 is expected to be 4-5 percent and break through 180 million TEU, the update added. “Massive demand growth from China to Mexico is expected to continue, and overall inflation to stay above the two percent threshold targeted by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve.” China to Mexico trade has been in the spotlight in 2024 with TEU-demand growth increasing 22.1 percent year-to-date compared with 2023. This follows the full year-on-year growth of 34.6 percent in 2023. “One of the key reasons is found in the cooling relations between China and the U.S. and Mexico being seen as a backdoor to avoid import tariffs. Looking ahead to 2025, demand is expected to increase further on this trade. Another one to watch is China to the Middle East where volumes are 52 percent up from 2021.” Peter Sand, Chief Analyst, Xeneta says: “Macro-economic developments set the overall direction for container shipping demand but it does not tell the whole story and shippers need to understand market nuances at a regional and port-to-port level. The upcoming U.S. Presidential elections will have a major influence on 2025 because the potential for new tariffs on Chinese imports could see shippers revisit their manufacturing and supply chain setups – and perhaps see a further acceleration in imports to Mexico. “2024 was very much driven by frontloading of cargoes in addition to longer sailing distances. Any change in this approach next year represents a downward risk to demand – unless 2025 turns out to be even more dramatic.” Major changes in alliances in 2025 will bring risk and opportunity, and the best carrier network will vary tremendously from trade to trade, the update added. “OCEAN Alliance (COSCO, CMA CGM and Evergreen) has most capacity and service loops in 2025, Gemini (Maersk and Hapag) may be the go-to alliance to avoid Singapore congestion and carriers may stop calling at some ports in 2025.” Shifting alliances will have a big impact at port level, Xeneta says in its report. “If you are shipping cargo from the Far East to Antwerp, then MSC is likely to be your preferred supplier with four weekly calls in 2025. This compares to one call a week with Premier Alliance (ONE, HMM and Yang Ming) and none from Gemini. A key point for shippers is to not assume your existing carriers will continue to call at the same ports in 2025.” Sand adds : “Shippers must understand what the new alliances are offering on the trades they utilise – and it comes down to far more than price. It is a balance between cost, reliability and transit time while also being aware the carrier you currently use may not be the best one going forward. Keep your options open, do not be afraid to challenge carriers and seek assurances they can deliver what they are promising, particularly around service reliability.” 2024 has been a bruising year for shippers and they will hope 2025 brings some relief – but it is important to be realistic and prepare for further disruption, says the report.

India’s maritime industry plays a paramount role in the economy, facilitating trade, creating jobs, and driving the nation’s overall development. However, challenges like fluctuating fuel prices, global crises, and geopolitical tensions can cause choppy waters ahead. Staying resilient and productive during these uncertain times is essential for marine companies to stay afloat and thrive. That’s why having a compelling plan to boost output during emergencies is essential for their survival and success. It is therefore critical for marine companies to have a plan in place for boosting output amid emergencies. Strategies for enhancing productivity during crisis: Proactive planning and risk management Develop comprehensive crisis management plans: Extensive crisis management strategies should be developed to outline approaches for responding to various crisis scenarios. Communication protocols, resource allocation, and decision-making methods are the strategies that should be included. Also Read – Five trends to shape next decade of breakbulk, container shipping Conduct regular risk assessments: Identifying potential risks and vulnerabilities in operations promptly is crucial along with developing mitigation strategies to lessen their effects. Maintain emergency supplies and equipment: Make sure you have the necessary resources ready to address emergencies, like extra parts, medical supplies, and communication devices. Clear communication and collaboration Establish clear communication channels: Clear, precise, and convenient information should be accessible to all stakeholders, including team members, shore-based personnel, and clients. Utilise technology for communication: Use satellite communication, collaboration platforms, and remote monitoring tools to remain connected and well-informed during disruptions. Adaptability and flexibility Adjust schedules and routes: Stay relaxed and versatile to varying circumstances, such as port closures or weather disruptions. Also Read – Driver issues, truck utilization, electrification in Indian trucking Empower crew members to make decisions: Provide training for crew members to enhance their ability to make well-informed decisions in unexpected circumstances while following the minimum safety procedures. Leverage technology for optimisation: Use data analytics and digital tools to improve workflows, allocate resources efficiently, and make better decisions. Optimise operations Digitise processes: Streamline operations by adopting digital solutions for document management, cargo tracking, communication, and scheduling. This promotes remote work, reduces manual errors, and facilitates faster decision-making. Optimise resource allocation: Upscale crew efficiency by utilising data-driven methods for planning routes, managing fuel consumption, and scheduling regular tasks. Explore AI-based technologies for predictive maintenance to lower instances of downtime and unexpected repairs. Also Read – Indian logistics industry adapting to new realities Strengthen partnerships: Working with logistics providers, port authorities, and other stakeholders can enhance information sharing and streamline operational procedures. Joint ventures or strategic alliances may also be beneficial for sharing resources and expertise. Prioritise training and development: Investing in upskilling and reskilling crew members is important for them to adapt to new technologies and changing regulations. It is also essential to enhance crisis management training to help prepare them for unforeseen circumstances. Promote a culture of innovation: Encourage staff members to propose and execute new solutions to increase efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Foster a collaborative workplace that values feedback and encourages innovation. Crew wellbeing and morale Prioritise crew safety and well-being: Ensure adequate rest, proper nutrition, and access to mental health support during crisis situations. Also Read – Ensuring smooth pharma logistics with safety and compliance standards Recognise and reward exceptional performance: Recognise and show gratitude to team members who exceed expectations in difficult situations. Foster a positive and supportive work environment: Create a team-oriented culture that encourages collaboration and problem-solving.

The global shipping and logistics industry is standing on the edge of a radical transition, with both charter vessel and breakbulk shipping looking to increasingly take a dominant position in the next decade. This shift is largely driven by various factors such as increasing container rates; trade dynamics; concerns about monopolies in the container shipping market, and smaller new entrants into the charter market. This article looks at the trends and predictions that will shape the future of freight over the next decade. Rise of breakbulk shipping and container shipping Professionals dealing in the shipping industry are increasingly selecting charter vessels for great flexibility and control. Chartering a vessel allows the supplier to secure a fixed vessel capacity for a particular route and dates, reducing the constraints of the liner services and also bypassing the risk of rolled cargo. Container shipping is one of the leading modes of transport for manufacturing goods, it has also experienced variability that has been unmatched in recent years. Charter rates have also been less volatile than the container rates which offers the shippers greater predictability about their transportation costs. This is majorly appealing for businesses that specialise in cargo or those that are operating in niche markets. The transportation of non-containerized cargo, or breakbulk shipping, is likewise experiencing a sharp upsurge. This kind of transportation is best suited for project cargo, heavy-lifting goods, and commodities that are difficult to containerize. The need for breakbulk shipping is growing as a result of the surge of renewable energy projects, infrastructure development, and industrial expansion. These projects require specialized vessels and handling equipment. 1. Technological disruption It is clear that technology has significantly changed freight dynamics. The emergence of digital platforms for matching shippers with available vessels would make it easier, faster and cheaper to charter ships. Predictive analytics using big data to predict customer behaviour can ensure best business decisions are made in order to optimize operational efficiency for the highest demand fluctuations while preventing stock-outs. 2. Evolving geopolitical landscape and trade Trade agreements and geopolitics will continue to shape global trade. So, businesses need to expand their supply chains and diversify along with exploring new markets to adapt to such legislative changes and tariffs. To reduce risk and increase responsiveness, companies may consider regionalization or nearshore more attractive than before. Besides, infrastructure projects like the China Belt and Road Initiative are building new trade routes and opportunities. Also Read – Ensuring smooth pharma logistics with safety and compliance standards 3. Collaboration and customer focus Industry players will increasingly have to work together. More and more companies will turn to partnerships and alliances,-tapping into complementary strengths, and gaining reach with an eye on the respective benefit. The freight companies will have to work out more tailored solutions in direct response to the enhanced customer demand for personalization and flexibility. 4. Change in government regulations When it comes to safety and environmental requirements, the government seems to be getting more involved in the freight industry. And, to ensure that everyone is starting from the same point, which highlights a dynamic and exciting future for freight transportation. Businesses that have fully accepted these changes and have modified their approach have been in a better position to capitalize on the tsunami of change that will define the upcoming years. 5. Regulatory landscape and trade dynamics Geopolitical developments and regulatory changes will have a long-term impact on global trade patterns and freight operations. Trade agreements, tariffs, and other geopolitical tensions have a high chance of affecting logistical choices and supply chain tactics. Businesses need to continuously navigate dynamic regulatory environments to ensure compliance, modify risk-reduction tactics, and take advantage of opportunities presented by emerging markets.